Miyoko Nishimura

MBA, MFTA, Mizuho Securities Co.,Ltd. Investment Information Dept. Strategist, Technical Analyst

Miyoko Nishimura, MBA, MFTA is a Technical Analyst and Strategist in the Investment Information Department of Mizuho Securities. (http://www.mizuho-sc.com)

Miyoko won the John Brooks Memorial award for the best MFTA paper for 2015.

She first became interested in futures markets while studying at the University of Newcastle in Australia. From 2003 to 2015, she worked for one of Japan’s leading commodity brokers. She achieved recognition for three years in a row as a top salesperson and as head of the company’s top-performing branches in Tokyo. While working as a trainer in the HR department, she made presentations to staff throughout Japan. She also contributed to the company’s Diversity Project. During this period, she also found time to earn an MBA at Tama Graduate School of Business and to raise her two young children. She worked for two years as a stock futures broker. In 2014 she joined the company’s Investment Research Division as a Technical Analyst. Since joining Mizuho in 2016, she has presented technical and macro-economic seminars to potential customers throughout Japan and provided market reports and commentaries. Since September 2016 she has provided commentary on Nikkei CNBC. As an NTAA member she has played roles of presenter, coordinator, moderator, and translator of seminars.

 

 

ABSTRACT

Chasing “SKURT” Signals

A SKEW Index shows whether the distribution of stock prices is biased towards an increase or a decline. The former suggests the stock price is rising, the latter suggests it is falling. In other words, SKEW can be used as a statistical indicator to measure the strength of an advance. We devise a KURT index that shows whether the stock price distribution is concentrated or dispersed. A concentrated distribution suggests that a trend is present a dispersed distribution suggests that the trend is not clear. In other words, KURT can be used as a statistical indicator to measure the presence or absence of a trend. We combine these two statistical measures (affectionately, “SKURT”) to generate trade signals and investigate their effectiveness for actual trades. In other words, if SKEW suggests a rise in stock price, and KURT suggests the presence of a trend, we have a buy signal. If SKEW suggests a decline in stock price, and KURT suggests the presence of a trend, we have a sell signal. And when either disappears, we have a close signal. We report the effectiveness of the signals for conducting trades in several representative futures markets and indexes.